AuroraData - Aurora Planning & Substorm Advisor

** 1 - Substorm Trigger Engine

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The Concept

Aurora hunting in Australia requires a 60+ minute drive to dark sites, but most tools don’t help answer the critical question: “Should I leave now?” AuroraData solves this by combining real-time solar wind data, substorm trigger logic, local weather forecasts, and travel time to provide a single, actionable “Go/No-Go” decision.

Quick Facts

What This Is

A specialized tool for Australian aurora observers that combines real-time space weather monitoring (NOAA), substorm prediction logic (Bz/HP trends), and localized terrestrial weather (ACCESS-G model) to provide clear, advice-driven recommendations on when to leave for observation sites.

Core Value

Providing a single, definitive “Go/No-Go” score that accounts for both space weather potential and local terrestrial conditions (travel time, cloud cover, moon illumination).

The Problem

Existing tools like Glendale app are powerful but complex. Australian observers face unique challenges:

• Geographic disadvantage: Need strong events (Kp 6-7+) to see aurora at southern Australian latitudes
• Travel time investment: 60-90 minute drives to dark sites required
• Local weather gaps: Most tools use global models, not Australian-specific forecasts
• Decision paralysis: Multiple data sources provide conflicting signals

The question: “If I leave now, will I see aurora when I arrive in 90 minutes?”

The Solution

Real-Time Space Weather Monitoring

• Solar Wind Data: NOAA SWPC JSON products (Bz, Bt, Speed, Density)
• Hemispheric Power: NOAA text products showing auroral power levels
• Substorm Triggers: Detect Bz southward turns + HP step changes

Localized Terrestrial Conditions

• Australian Weather: ACCESS-G model via Open-Meteo (cloud cover, precipitation)
• Moon Illumination: Calculate moon phase impact on aurora visibility
• Site-Specific Forecasts: 2-4 hour ahead prediction for specific observation locations

Travel Time Intelligence

• Accounts for drive time from current location
• Hour-ahead planning based on HP building trends
• “Leave now” vs “wait 30 minutes” recommendations

Key Features

Already Implemented:

• ✓ NOAA Solar Wind fetcher (Bz, Bt, Speed, Density)
• ✓ NOAA Hemispheric Power fetcher
• ✓ Open-Meteo weather integration (cloud cover, precipitation)
• ✓ Basic moon illumination logic
• ✓ Opportunity scoring engine

In Development:

• Hour-ahead planning logic based on HP building trends
• Site-specific travel time integration
• Refined substorm trigger math (Bz drops + HP step changes)
• Site-specific weather forecasting for next 2-4 hours

Example Use Case

Location: Adelaide, SA
Target Site: Willow Springs (90 min drive)
Time: 21:30 ACDT

AuroraData Analysis:
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Space Weather:
  Bz: -12 nT (southward, favorable)
  HP: 45 GW → 68 GW (building substorm)
  Speed: 580 km/s (elevated)
  Forecast: Strong activity next 1-2 hours

Local Conditions:
  Cloud Cover: 15% (clearing)
  Precipitation: 0mm (dry)
  Moon: 12% illumination (dark skies)
  Weather at arrival (23:00): Clear

Travel Time: 90 minutes
Arrival Window: 23:00-01:00
Peak Activity: 23:30-00:30 (predicted)

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
RECOMMENDATION: GO NOW
Confidence: 85%
Leave by: 21:45
Expected conditions: Strong activity, clear skies, dark

Architecture

┌─────────────────────────────────────┐
│      Data Sources (Polling)         │
├─────────────────────────────────────┤
│ • NOAA SWPC (Solar Wind, HP)        │
│ • Open-Meteo (ACCESS-G Weather)     │
│ • Moon Phase Calculator             │
└────────────┬────────────────────────┘
             │
    ┌────────▼────────────┐
    │  Substorm Analyzer  │
    │  (Bz/HP Triggers)   │
    └────────┬────────────┘
             │
    ┌────────▼────────────┐
    │  Opportunity Scorer │
    │  (Go/No-Go Logic)   │
    └────────┬────────────┘
             │
    ┌────────▼────────────┐
    │   Output Layer      │
    │  • CLI Dashboard    │
    │  • Future: Telegram │
    └─────────────────────┘

Tech Stack

• Language: TypeScript (Node.js)
• Data Sources:
  • NOAA SWPC (Space Weather Prediction Center)
  • Open-Meteo API (ACCESS-G Australian weather model)
• Architecture: CLI prototype, designed for future web/mobile expansion
• Future: Telegram bot integration for real-time alerts

Integration with AuroraPhoto

While AuroraPhoto handles the capture side (automated camera control, HFR focus), AuroraData handles the planning side (when to go, where to go). They complement each other:

1. AuroraData: “Strong event predicted, leave now for Willow Springs”
2. AuroraPhoto: Automated multi-camera capture once on-site

Out of Scope (v1)

• Astro Predictor (Seeing/Transparency): Separate future project
• Mobile Native App: Initial focus on CLI/web-based alerts